At the end of April, Editorial Consultant Phil Matten asked colleagues from across the European fastener association networks, for their assessment of the impact of Covid-19. Unsurprisingly, many issues were common, but the progress of the disease and individual government responses also meant significant variations.

The coronavirus hit Italy early and aggressively, as Gian Marco Dalpane, president of UDIB, attests. “The Covid-19 pandemic in Italy began in early February, exploding in the middle of the same month.” The disease mainly affected Northern Italy, especially the heavily industrialised areas of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia Romagna. Infections were also detected in southern Germany late in January, with clusters developing by the end of February. The German Government moved into its containment phase on 13th March.

The French Government applied strict lockdown conditions on 17th March. Spain, as Jorge Cámara, export manager at Chavesbao, puts it “abruptly entered the tunnel” on 27th March, the same day that the United Kingdom and Irish Governments implemented tight restrictions on business and communities.

The automotive manufacturing industry and its supply chain has been hardest hit, with most activity coming to an abrupt cessation. In Spain, says Ramón Cervalls of CELO, many automotive OEMs ceased production in the second half of March, although tier 1 and 2 manufacturers continued production for a further two weeks, to ensure a full pipeline ready for assembly resumption. Orders on the fastener supply chain plummeted, initially by 70%, with April and May automotive order levels expected to remain down by 50%.

Jacques Barrier, of Prismefix, reported automotive demand falling by 85% in France. In Germany, FDS members expected April sales across industry to have declined by as much as 50%, with automotive hardest hit. The UK automotive sector was at a standstill throughout April, resulting in some fastener manufacturers and service providers furloughing most employees. In Italy, all production activity, with the exception of strategic agribusiness, biomedical and pharmaceutical sectors, was at a complete standstill during April.

The European automotive industry is now gradually focusing its restart plans during May. However, with dealerships closed and consumer and business demand confidence heavily depressed, initial production volumes will clearly be low and the ramp up tentative. Several OEMs are prioritising output of AFVs and all are closely monitoring existing inventories and demand potential by model to determine production levels. Automotive entered the coronavirus crisis in powertrain transition, with suppressed demand and heavy inventory. As it fights to recover from the Covid-19 shock, it will still face those other challenges. As a result, there can be no expectation of a return to pre Covid-19 demand for several months, probably longer.

Construction activity in most countries also took a dramatic ‘hit’. In Spain demand from the sector slowed by around 20% in the second half of March, but orders shrunk by 75% during April. In France demand fell by around 60% in April. In the UK, initial confusion over whether construction sites were allowed to remain operational, plus concerns over safe working practices, resulted in almost complete closure of all bar the most critical operations. Most sites in Scotland and Ireland ceased activity. Demand for construction fixings was mainly limited to online supply chains to the consumer market, as DIY activity under lockdown burgeoned. Supplies to the craft sector in Germany also held up. In France and Italy, however, tighter restrictions over people’s movement throttled DIY demand.

Estimates vary but there is reasonable evidence that construction demand will recover more strongly. In the UK, housebuilding had weathered the BREXIT turmoil fairly well. However, consumers – concerned about job security – will be more cautious about major financial commitments. Nevertheless, prospects for housebuilding recovery look reasonable. Infrastructure throughout Europe will be dependent on government investment to boost economic recovery. Some is already evident, including renewed UK Government commitment to the still controversial HS2 rail project. Commercial and industrial construction clearly depends on business confidence, likely to take longer to recover. In Spain the tourism industry will be seriously impacted, at least in the short-term, by the coronavirus. However, Ramón Cervalls believes that, unlike the 2009 – 2012 aftermath of the financial crisis, construction is more likely to return strongly.